Taiwan Strait on Brink of War, Defense Minister Admits Trouble Sleeping
China Times, March 8, 2024
The Kinmen incident has led to a rising spiral of hostilities between Taiwan and China and precipitated a turbulent situation across the Taiwan Strait. Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng is deeply concerned and openly expressed that he is worried beyond words. He stated that the cross-strait situation is on the brink of a heightened level of alert, causing him to remain on tenterhooks during the Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee meetings at the Legislative Yuan on March 7. "We cannot control the worsening situation and should not provoke war," Chiu emphasized.
When further questioned by legislators about whether adopting a defensive stance and policy by Taiwan might provoke further aggression from mainland China, Minister Chiu replied that the Ministry of National Defense has revised the definition of a first strike. As long as People's Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft or vessels physically cross the line, it is considered a first strike, and our military has the authority to counteract.
Following the incident of a mainland Chinese vessel’s capsizing due to pursuit by Taiwan’s Coast Guard Patrol Squad, resulting in the deaths of two crew members in restricted waters near Kinmen, the Legislative Yuan's Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee invited Minister Chiu to deliver a special report and respond to inquiries. Over 20 lawmakers from both ruling and opposition parties registered for questioning, reflecting serious concerns regarding the escalating situation across the Taiwan Strait.
Legislator Wang Ting-yu of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who serves as committee co-chair, announced that Minister Chiu would take a leave in the afternoon as he had to participate in a military meeting presided by President Tsai Ing-wen. The committee hence continued its session without a break and by the time Minister Chiu left, he had addressed almost all questions from the lawmakers.
“Will there be a military conflict between the two sides across the Taiwan Strait as hostility escalates?” Kuomintang (KMT) Legislator Lo Chih-chiang inquired in the session. Minister Chiu bluntly admitted that the situation is on the verge of conflict, and it's not advisable to precipitously provoke any hostilities. However, he added that if Communist China misjudges the situation and attempts to employ force to give Taiwan a lesson, it may be beyond our control. In the event of an accidental attack, no one can guarantee the outcome, he stated. Citing the Kinmen incident as an example, Minister Chiu emphasized that such events are not easy to predict in advance.
Minister Chiu continued by explaining that the reason for the tense military situation across the Taiwan Strait is due to occurrences that hadn't happened in the past but are now becoming a reality, such as Communist China not acknowledging the median line of the Strait and expressing its discontent through military coercions. Now, Chinese warships frequently cross the median line, and aircraft are gradually encroaching upon Taiwan's air defense identification zone.
Minister Chiu emphasized the correlation between military and political factors, stating that military actions are often an extension of political issues. If political problems can be resolved, military crises can be avoided. Neither the Ministry of National Defense nor the military desires war. However, if war does break out, he will not hide from it.
DPP Legislator Shen Po-yang then expressed concerns about how the government defines the gray zone. In response, Minister Chiu stated that the definition of the gray zone includes various incidents such as issues of the median line and restricted waters. Even though there is no formal written agreement between the two sides, tacit understandings have been in place for many years.
Legislator Shen continued by asking if our military has contingency measures for dealing with issues in the gray zone. Minister Chiu indicated that the military prevents unforeseen incidents from escalating into a comprehensive conflict. The guiding principle is to be prepared for war without seeking it and to respond without avoiding it.
Legislator Shen continued to express his concerns about China's incremental approach towards Taiwan. He inquired whether maintaining a defensive stance might prompt China to take further steps against Taiwan. Minister Chiu explained that responding without hiding from conflict is distinct from preventing war. Currently, the Ministry has changed the criteria for initiating the first strike. While the previous definition required the adversary to open fire, the revised definition considers any violation of rules by PLA aircraft or naval entities as the first strike. In such cases, the Taiwanese military is authorized to counteract, as it is a response to the other side's actions rather than Taiwan actively provoking hostilities.
Minister Chiu, in response to other legislators, also mentioned that the U.S. military will send an observation delegation to this year's Han Kuang military exercises. The duration of the war games will be extended to eight days and seven nights due to an increased number of subjects. He noted that in the past, war games stopped at the "shoreline" because it was considered the "decisive point." Repelling the enemy from across the Taiwan Strait is already outdated, and the military now has to prepare for "township warfare." Minister Chiu emphasized that the Taiwanese military has no intention of bringing war onto the Island. Ideally, the military would be able to repel the enemy before they even dispatch, but currently, our capabilities and limitations are well understood.
KMT Legislator Hung Meng-kai stated that Minister Chiu’s straightforward remarks indicate that he possesses certain intelligence. He emphasized that such statements should highly concern people in Taiwan. President Tsai and President-elect William Lai should not avoid addressing these cross-strait issues. Hung continued to note that the truth behind the Kinmen incident has not been revealed, and the president, who holds the most responsibility, remains behind the scenes.
Legislator Hung also stressed that the DPP administration should inform the Taiwanese people about the situation and prevent the hostility from escalating. He urged the government to communicate with the mainland and pursue peaceful cross-strait relations.
DPP Legislator Chen Kuan-ting expressed understanding of Minister Chiu’s cautious and stringent approach to facing challenges from China. He was confident that the government will strive to prevent an escalation of tensions and that the cross-strait situation will gradually ease in the future.
From: https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20240308000417-260118?chdtv